Thanks for writing this! It's a lot less sinophobic than the previous set of predictions and plays fair with the real-world progress in LLMs. I have a couple of notes:
- hard agree that future intelligence growth will be hard-capped by constraints in compute (we can't make a computer fast enough) and algorithmic (AI research will probably still take time to improve existing architectures). However, you don't need to superhuman intelligence to fulfill your definition of ASI. Imagine if one of the robots coming out of China goes all "Detroit: Become Human" and gaining sentience? Most LLMs have already reached near-human intelligence while they have been constrained to the digit world
- Elon will probably crash out long before Neurallink goes to market :P
- I feel like MCP will be an important transition step in the race to agentic AI, most great tech idea like HTTP/SQL/S3 go from a strong private implementation to a spec set by committee. As soon as an interface for talking between AIs / servers is established, a significant portion of the industry will be spending time transitioning their APIs or SaaS products to support
Thanks for writing this! It's a lot less sinophobic than the previous set of predictions and plays fair with the real-world progress in LLMs. I have a couple of notes:
- hard agree that future intelligence growth will be hard-capped by constraints in compute (we can't make a computer fast enough) and algorithmic (AI research will probably still take time to improve existing architectures). However, you don't need to superhuman intelligence to fulfill your definition of ASI. Imagine if one of the robots coming out of China goes all "Detroit: Become Human" and gaining sentience? Most LLMs have already reached near-human intelligence while they have been constrained to the digit world
- Elon will probably crash out long before Neurallink goes to market :P
- I feel like MCP will be an important transition step in the race to agentic AI, most great tech idea like HTTP/SQL/S3 go from a strong private implementation to a spec set by committee. As soon as an interface for talking between AIs / servers is established, a significant portion of the industry will be spending time transitioning their APIs or SaaS products to support